Everything is unlike we expected (Wednesday 27th November 2002)
Roman probably reached his winter grounds by short and straight move. The temperatures received from the transmitter retain around comfortable 20 C. Katerina may have unwillingly embedded in western China northward from the world's highest mountains. Her moves resemble a mixture of oriented distant flights and wandering in an unknown area. (Note from MB: according to freshly gained coordinates, Roman flew eastward a little bit again and Katerina aim at the Tarim basin.)
And the worst news in the end. Petr won't succeed to reach his winter grounds...The basic reason for our sorrow is his activity sensor which has been "stuck" since 21th November at the number of 232. Even other technical readings prove abnormal situation. The maximum level of signal dropped 10dB and is now at the limit of satellite apparatus resolution. The transmitter temperature fell below 0C. Such a low temperature cannot be measured if the transmitter was still at the back of a living bird whose normal body temperature is about 42C. Since 21th November we've received only 3 to 5 elementary signals per day (none in the last period - MB) which does not allow for an accurate localisation. Even if the transmitter sent more accurate location, it's not possible to find out detailed information. The movement in Afghanistan is limited not only due to current political situation, but due to large areas being mined out as well.
Let's get back to Katerina. On the 20th November, she seemed to try to escape from the cold weather. her transmitter temperature fell down to 10C. She flew 370 km during 3 days southwestward across the Takla Makan desert and stopped at the beginning of a huge mass Kunlun, which is a part of Himalaya bow. We were eager - to the India boundary remained only 150 km. But it was here where Karakoram mountains (7000 m) with peaks such as K2 or a massif with Nanga Parbat awaited her. To reach convenient winter grounds she would have to fly 550 km at once which seems to be impossible now when the winter begins. At the halfway, the massif is divided by a deep river valley of the Indus river. It's possible that she could find a short time asylum here. If she does not try the fly-over, we expect her to fly to not too distant area with warm springs, about which Mr. Ma Ming said that it's the most suitable for winterising. Interesting is the direction of Katerina's flyover from the last week. Perhaps controlled by some mysterious bird compass she tried to leave the place she's been staying for 1 and a half month for the same direction as before her turnaway to China. If we extended this path, she would reach Pakistan.